Frisco, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

976
FXUS64 KFWD 100948
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
448 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures with low rain chances are expected each
  day this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/
/Today through Wednesday/

A bit of a pattern change will commence across North and Central
Texas today through the middle of this week, with a weak H5 low
moving westward into the state while an upper trough digs slightly
southward into the southern Plains. This change will knock
temperatures down a tad more than we have seen with highs in the
90s to around 100 - which is right around normal for this time of
year - as well as bring us low rain chances each day. Best rain
chances will be in two zones - our southern and eastern counties
which will see some seabreeze activity, and our western and
northern counties where convection may develop/spread southward
out of Oklahoma. The middle of our forecast area, including the
Metroplex, looks to stay in between these areas of higher rain
chances and should see less coverage of any precip.

For today, a few showers and storms appear possible in our far
south and east as the HRRR suggests. However, coverage should be
quite low so have only inserted a 10 percent chance for precip
this afternoon. Rain chances will increase areawide tomorrow then
peak on Tuesday as the upper low moves directly overhead, before
decreasing again Wednesday. Forecast soundings each day show
inverted-V type profiles with MLCAPE and DCAPE up to 1500 J/Kg
along with fairly high PWATs near the 2 inch mark. Although
nothing widespread is anticipated, given the environment a few
storms could get robust each day with strong downburst/microburst
winds.

Shamburger

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/
/Thursday through Saturday/

The upper level pattern will transition again from late week into
next weekend as a large H5 ridge builds along the Gulf Coast and
extends westward into Texas. 00Z models are not as aggressive with
the strength of the ridge or its western extent, and subsequently
do not heat us back up as previous runs showed with temperatures
remaining near normal. This also will keep a slight rain chance
in the forecast each day, mainly across our far eastern and
southeastern counties.

Shamburger

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will continue this TAF period with just a few low
and mid level clouds expected. South to southeast winds up to 12
knots are also anticipated through tomorrow.

Shamburger

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  79  96  77  95 /   5   0  10  10  30
Waco                95  75  94  75  95 /   5   0  10  10  30
Paris               96  74  94  73  94 /  10   0  10   5  30
Denton              99  75  97  74  95 /   5   0  10  10  30
McKinney            97  76  96  74  95 /   5   0  10   5  30
Dallas              98  79  97  78  97 /   5   0  10  10  30
Terrell             96  74  95  73  95 /  10   0  20   5  30
Corsicana           97  76  96  75  96 /  10   0  20   5  30
Temple              96  74  95  73  95 /   0   0  10  10  30
Mineral Wells       99  73  97  72  95 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$